Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 489 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay
It’s hard to know exactly how big an impact José Ramirez’s hand injury will have on Cleveland’s playoff hopes.
But it’s hard to imagine it will be small.
Ramirez’s resurgence this year correlated rather directly with the thrice-defending division champions’ charge back into contention. With him out, the Tribe has to figure out how to replace the 131 wRC+ he’s posted since Memorial Day weekend. Mike Freeman’s been having a solid year (107 wRC+), but his .361 BABIP is likely unsustainable. Jason Kipnis hasn’t been an average or above-average hitter since 2016. Yu Chang is not exactly promising.
With a loss today and an A’s win, Cleveland would fall out of playoff position. Without Ramirez, they might not get back in.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win (-195). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Aaron Brooks probably isn’t as bad as his 6.81 ERA indicates. He’s still five outs away from hitting 40 innings on the year, and his FIP is only 5.57.
But that’s still pretty bad.
Brooks’ place in the Baltimore rotations captures one of the stranger races of the year: whether the Orioles’ starters or bullpen will be worse.
So far, ERA gives the nod to the bullpen (6.12 vs. 5.65), FIP says the starters have been worse (5.79 vs. 5.62), and fWAR, with its higher expectations for relievers than starters, has the bullpen as more damaging (-0.6 vs. 3.5).
Thrilling stuff.
Pick: Kansas City to win (-125). Low confidence.
Seattle @ Texas
Yusei Kikuchi’s turn in the rotation was skipped a couple weeks ago, and the Mariners might want to do a little more of that. Kikuchi has far and away been the worst qualified starter this year in the MLB, with a 5.88 FIP (the next closest is Mike Leake’s, at 5.11), a 5.36 ERA (only Rick Porcello, at 5.42, and Reynaldo López, at 5.41, have been worse), and 0.1 fWAR (no other qualified starter is below 0.9).
At some point, the Mariners need to regroup on Kikuchi, and while his complete-game shutout on the 18th in Toronto was encouraging, his August numbers still managed to be worse than those over the whole season.
With nothing to lose this year, maybe Seattle’s best-off letting Kikuchi try to work through his struggles. But they might be better served keeping his arm fresh and giving him more time to reset before starting anew come February.
Pick: Texas to win (-125). Low confidence.
