Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,164 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,631 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, a few NFL picks. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 95–68–4, we’re up 18.67 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 0–5–1, we’re down 5.00 units, we’re down 83%.
Los Angeles @ Seattle
Both the Mariners and Astros are playing atrociously right now, and it would be very Dodgers to have Gavin Stone throw a gem tonight while Kike Hernández goes yard three times. That said: The Dodgers clinched their division last night and have little seeding to play for. The Mariners are in playoff contention. The odds are decently affordable. This is a blind bet. We’re not going to pass it up, especially on a Sunday, the day when baseball’s always a little extra weird.
Pick: Seattle to win –138. Low confidence. (Stone and Gilbert must start.)
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
I’m guessing we’re following the public on all three of these, and that might not be great. What we’re thinking with this one, though, is that the Ravens’ quantity of injuries is important. We tend to view individual injuries as overestimated in their impact, but when the number is that high, it’s an issue. As for the 2022 parallels for a bad Joe Burrow start? He wasn’t great in Week 2 last year either, but he at least didn’t throw any picks.
Pick: Cincinnati –3 (–115). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Jacksonville
There is a very real possibility that the Chiefs drop to 0–2 today, and that is wild, and inertia is probably resulting in an underestimation of it. But this is a big, big game—arguably bigger than the opener—and we really like Kansas City in those. We retain some skepticism about the Jaguars, even if they looked awesome in Week 1.
Pick: Kansas City –3 (–115). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ LA Rams
We’re on board for the Niners beating everyone by at least three scores until they meet the Bengals over Halloween weekend. That seems possible. Maybe the Steelers are just terrible, but even if they are: Do we trust the Rams?
Pick: San Francisco –7 (–115). Low confidence.
