Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,769 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: Single-game MLB, single-game NFL, and a little bit of IndyCar.
Here’s the history on each and how we approach them:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 166–143–4 so far this year, down 10.39 units. A little more than a month ago, we pivoted to a different set of systems. We’re 54–41–1 since the pivot, up 2.41 units. The biggest driver of that success has been Heat Index, our pet metric which gauges the gap between how hot different teams are. Together, various combinations of Heat Index’s first, second, and third picks have gone 39–17–1, generating a 7.59-unit return. In response to a recent plateau, we’ve recently shortened Heat Index’s sample to two weeks and reverted to only betting one game a day with it. In response to a further dip, we’re now shifting to betting its second choice, which has the best track record of the three. This is all a reach, and we may need to shut MLB moneylines down for the year soon.
Single-game NFL bets: We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, we’re 4–1, up 2.78 units.
IndyCar: We only bet these occasionally, and our longterm record is poor. This season, we’re up 1.93 units, only betting on Chevrolets (and specifically Penske cars) on ovals. We did have some private testing success before winning those 1.93 units, but the only proven track record we can point to is the 1.93 units.
Houston @ Anaheim
As we said above, we’re well into “reach” territory with our MLB moneylines. We had some good success in August, but September has us grasping at straws. We’re giving it at least two more days. We’ll keep you posted from there.
Pick: Houston to win –194. Low confidence. (Blanco and Dana must start.)
Cincinnati @ Kansas City
On the NFL side, the early positive results are encouraging, but our bad sample last year is bigger than our good one this year. What we’ve been doing so far this season is looking for a fairly normal game, one without too many injuries and no new quarterback situations. Then, we check which way FPI seems to lean on the game, based on our (somewhat aggressive) take on home-field advantage.
Today? That favors the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City –6.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Music City Grand Prix
We’re riding with the three Penskes plus Pato O’Ward today, putting down 44 units in total on the IndyCar season’s final race. Maybe we’ll have really botched this, but we’ve been seeing great value on ovals for a few years now, and we don’t think IndyCar’s all that efficient of a betting market these days. Sometimes, it’s fun to take a responsible shot.
Pick: Winning Car’s Engine – Chevrolet (–175). Medium confidence. x6
Pick: Josef Newgarden to finish top three (–150). Medium confidence. x6
Pick: Will Power to finish top three (–125). Medium confidence. x6
Pick: Pato O’Ward to beat Kyle Kirkwood (–115). Low confidence. x3
Pick: Scott McLaughlin to beat Álex Palou, David Malukas, & Felix Rosenqvist (+240). Low confidence. x2
Pick: Pato O’Ward to win (+700). Low confidence. x2
Pick: Scott McLaughlin to win (+1400). Low confidence.
