Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,021 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Atlanta @ Washington
With few options available and injuries making everything uncertain, there is a non-zero chance Kyle Wright starts multiple playoff games for Atlanta this October. Wright has a 7.77 FIP, and an 8.05 ERA. Among pitchers who’ve faced 90 or more batters, his xwOBA is the worst in Major League Baseball.
Wright’s been labeled at times as one of the top prospects in the Atlanta organization. He’s got the tools to turn it around. It’s been three MLB stints now, though, and the results have been bad each time. This time is the worst. Because this time, his team might need him.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (+110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9 (-120). Low confidence.
