Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,404 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is often used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Formula 1: Italian Grand Prix
If Max Verstappen had a fast car in qualifying and is longer than -200, we’re probably taking him right now. This meets those criteria.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win -130. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Grand Prix of Monterey
It’s hard to see Power making too significant of a mistake today, and it’s hard to see Penske not prioritizing him with the season championship within his grasp. It’s no sure thing—you don’t get sure things in IndyCar—but it’s the reasonable play, even at these jarringly short odds.
Pick: Will Power to win +350. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Kansas Playoff Race
The Fords had a devil of a time at Kansas in the spring, but of all the traditional big hitters, Logano was the only one to have a great day in qualifying yesterday. With odds implying his expected finish to be deeper in the top ten, he’s looking like the best value we can find.
Pick: Joey Logano to win +1000. Low confidence.
