Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,131 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks. FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We have our MLB moneyline for today, and we also have three NFL plays. All three are in the early window. We really could not generate any strong opinions on the later games.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 93–63–4, we’re up 21.30 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
Single-game NFL bets: We are 0–1 on the season.
Miami @ Philadelphia
We are betting an underdog here, so the likely thing is that we will lose. We like the value, though, because Miami’s got a fresh bullpen and Philadelphia’s been leaning on theirs. Also, Steven Okert might only pitch an inning or two, but the guy’s having a great year. That doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Miami to win +150. Low confidence. (Okert and Suárez must start.)
Carolina @ Atlanta
The thought here is that Atlanta is getting a lot of attention for having strong individuals at skill positions, but skill positions matter a lot more to fans than they do to who wins football games, especially beyond the quarterback position. If the fans are shaping this line at all, it’s probably overvaluing the Falcons.
Pick: Carolina +3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The thought here is that this game becoming a tossup requires Cleveland to take a big step forward and Cincinnati to take a big step back, and I understand the thinking with both those things but it feels like a stretch. Joe Burrow had a bad game last year in Week 1, and he missed a lot of training camp this year. It’s easy to make too much of that.
Pick: Cincinnati to win (–110). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
The thought here is that with all the Lions excitement, people may be forgetting that the Vikings are a solid team. Also: Tampa Bay might be tanking? This is a weird line for a game where we’re wondering if one team might be tanking.
Pick: Minnesota –4 (–110). Low confidence.
