Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,924 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1% across 2,399 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets are MLB futures and single-game NFL.
The context on each market:
MLB futures – In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We placed two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, as usual, then pivoted to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs, as usual. We’re currently big fans of the Tigers, Padres, and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers to win it all.
Single-game NFL bets: We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, though, we’re 9–5 and up 3.29 units.
ALDS: Cleveland vs. Detroit
Most of the value out there today in MLB futures markets is available on the Guardians and the Phillies. We’re choosing to address it in the Division Series market because we’ll get any returns faster there than we’d get them through the pennant and World Series markets, allowing us to reinvest those and multiply the ROI. With a team like the Yankees or Dodgers, we might approach it differently, but given how consistently we’ve seen the Yankees overvalued and the Phillies undervalued, we expect pennant and World Series value will continue to be there on Philadelphia and Cleveland if or when we want it.
The Guardians are a big favorite after their Game 1 win, even facing Tarik Skubal in Game 2 tomorrow. That game is a bit of a no-lose proposition for them. If they do go down, they’re back to even, and they only have to face him a maximum of one more time. If they win, the series is almost over.
This is easier, of course, because we have so much Tigers upside. But it’s still showing good value, and that’s with us looking at it from multiple directions. Eight units on the Guards.
Pick: Cleveland to win –210. Medium confidence. x4
NLDS: Philadelphia vs. New York
For the Phillies, we’re just doing the two units, because we have one other LDS future out there on an underdog (the Royals), and while it’s likelier than not that at least one of the Royals and Phils will win their series, the likeliest number of combined winners between Cleveland/KC/Philly is only one. If we’re sacrificing a little value for the quicker return, we want to feel good about the probability of getting that return. This leaves us only losing a fraction of a unit on the round if the teams who won yesterday each win their series. That’s the worst likely case.
There’s concern about the Phillies’ bats dying. Maybe that’s justified. At least one bat is working, though, and it’s batting leadoff, and the Mets used a decent amount of bullpen yesterday ahead of a matchup with Aaron Nola.
New scenarios below. This only includes series in which the given team could theoretically play. The Phillies number is unaffected by the outcome of the Guardians/Tigers series.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +140. Medium confidence.
| Team | Remaining Upside/Downside |
| Tigers | 1110 |
| Padres | 621 |
| Mets | 258 |
| Royals | 34 |
| Guardians | 26 |
| Yankees | -32 |
| Phillies | -67 |
| Dodgers | -318 |
Dallas @ Pittsburgh
This is an ugly line, but we’ve been winning with ugly lines. Sticking with what works for us takes us to the Cowboys here, whom FPI grades as only 0.6 points worse than the Steelers on a neutral field. We’ve been good at night and bad on Sundays. That probably has nothing to do with today’s result, but we can’t get it out of our heads, so we’re putting it in yours as well.
Pick: Dallas +2.5 (+105). Low confidence.
