Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,585 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Moneyline Parlay
Who do you trust today? I’m not sure of the right answer, but given where the odds are at, I’ll offer this as the way to go. The Dodgers have Walker Buehler going. The Padres don’t have Joe Musgrove going. The Red Sox have Chris Sale. Nothing’s a sure thing, and I’d be particularly nervous about the Red Sox, given their bullpen fatigue, but aside from the Brewers (and the Rays in a game we laid off of), this is the last day of school for every opponent in the games that matter. I considered making this all six teams with stakes.
Pick: Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston to win +193. Low confidence.
World Series
As playoff games inch closer, we’re looking to broaden our portfolio’s paths to profitability without sacrificing value. This hits that intersection.
Pick: Houston to win +600. Low confidence.
