Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,794 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we may have to wait until Election Day or later.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
We’ll hit the MLB futures tomorrow—not expecting the market to change too much on those. Just NASCAR and F1 today.
NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville
Hendrick was best at Martinsville in the spring. Hendrick was best at Martinsville in qualifying. Larson’s a better driver than Elliott and had, at least yesterday, the faster car.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +675. Low confidence.
Formula 1: Mexican Grand Prix
Our only hesitation here is fear that these odds are as long as they are because of some implication we’ve missed that Red Bull will give the win to Pérez in his home country.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win -150. Low confidence.
