Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of +0.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,587 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +4.1% across 1,950 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures and one NFL pick. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. Using FanGraphs probabilities and including today’s plays, our mean expected final return on those 750 units is 127.10 units, or 16.9%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 8–13–5; we’re down 5.99 units; and we’re down 23%.
World Series (Hedge)
24 units today for the hedge, where we’re slowing our pace in the hopes the Diamondbacks will take Game 3 tomorrow night and give us a cheap path to erasing all our remaining Rangers liability. As our bets stand, we could make 238 more units on the Diamondbacks and lose 88.23 more units from the Rangers winning. Considering our results so far, that comes out to a return of either a 297.39-unit profit or a 28.84-unit loss—a 40% return and a –4% return, respectively. As we’ve been saying: The value isn’t on the Rangers here. But this is what makes sense for our portfolio.
Pick: Texas to win –127. Medium confidence. x12
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
The 49ers have had a bad two weeks, and are two possessions away from being undefeated. We believe they were going to regress back to earth, but we have a hard time believing they aren’t a really good team. We have many more doubts about the Bengals, and the home-field advantage takes care of a chunk of these points. You can respect Joe Burrow without treating him like prime Pedro Martinez.
Pick: San Francisco –4 (–112). Low confidence.
