Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,140 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 2%’s into a whole lot more than 2% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Two World Series picks. One for tonight, one for the rest of the thing. For the future, the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current Vegas consensus consistently accurately available online.
Tampa Bay vs. Los Angeles
There was a lot of scoring last night. There’s been a lot of scoring on the series. At least relatively to the regular season at Globe Life Field (Globe Life Park? Whatever they’re calling it).
It’s possible that will continue tonight. Both bullpens are a bit taxed from the last two days. Not severely taxed, but a bit. The Rays have seen Kershaw recently. The Dodgers have seen and hit Glasnow recently.
What’s more likely is that the game’s fairly low-scoring, at least relatively to the series so far. Somewhere around the line of eight runs. And the lower-scoring the game is, the more it helps the run line underdog, who in this case happens to have a little value on the moneyline already. This is the best play on the board.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
World Series Future
The expected value here is only very narrowly positive. I wouldn’t recommend it to someone with an empty portfolio. But if you’ve been following these picks exactly throughout the year, this is a good hedge in that it shores up your maximum losses while avoiding making a negative-eROI pick. The Dodgers are still the better team. By a good margin.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -175. Medium confidence.
