Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,376 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, plus an NFL bet for today. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 116.48 units, or 15.5%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 7–11–5; we’re down 4.86 units; and we’re down 21%.
ALCS (Hedge)
We still don’t like this value, but after yesterday’s Diamondbacks loss, we’re back to addressing our worst-case scenario, which will be on the table if the Rangers win Game 6. We’d rather address it today than tomorrow, especially given our Diamondbacks options (where the value does lie, even if the probability is low) will still be there tomorrow.
Pick: Texas to win +340. Medium confidence.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
We had some evidence late last year that NFL teams are what they show themselves to be. Meaning: A team’s record is sometimes a little undervalued in these markets. We don’t know if that’s happening right now, but the Falcons have been getting a little excitement despite being a pair of field goals away from a 1–5 record. The Bucs aren’t dominating the world, but they’ve looked to be the slightly better team, and playing at home, that should be enough to cover this number.
Pick: Tampa Bay –3 (–105). Low confidence.
