Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,269 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.2% across 1,695 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, one NFL bet. We won’t be placing any MLB futures today—there’s nothing in the market that makes us feel a need to get things down today, and we have nothing to hedge against just yet.
Here’s the context on the active markets.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 100–76–5, we’re up 14.64 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –110). Today’s the last one of the year—we won’t be continuing these into the playoffs, focusing on the futures instead.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 3–7–4, we’re down 4.39 units, we’re down 31%. We had a good Week 3.
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
Today is a very difficult day to bet baseball, so we’re laying up a little bit and going with the Dodgers. Theoretically, the Dodgers do have something to play for today—they could seal home-field advantage in a potential World Series against the Rays—but even if they didn’t, their roster is simply very good, and the Giants are in some disarray.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –152. Low confidence. (Miller and Harrison must start.)
Denver @ Chicago
We don’t have a great read on any single game this weekend, and while we see the possibility for the Bears to get on the wins side of the standings today, we think the Broncos are bad while the Bears are a disaster. We don’t see the Broncos as a disaster just yet.
Pick: Denver –3 (–115). Low confidence.
