Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,637 published picks, not including pending futures. 0% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. We also have college football. First, though:
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Ian Anderson’s probably overvalued by the market here, given the gap between his postseason and regular season performance over the tiny sample that is his career. But Max Scherzer appears to be more overvalued, and that’s before considering that he missed yesterday’s start because his arm was tired.
It makes sense that Scherzer’s arm was tired after pitching in the NLDS, but to miss a start? In the NLCS? That could have set him up to make three starts in the series? And with fatigue Scherzer was presumably the one to mention? That’s a red flag. He’s probably fine, but the fundamentals here already lean towards Atlanta at these odds, and towards the over. The fatigue, and that of both bullpens after last night, just adds fuel to the fire. The Dodgers are in some trouble.
Pick: Atlanta to win +145. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115). Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup (or…parlay: ALCS/NLCS winner, which is the Bovada mechanism here)
This double-unit bet is a bad bet, so unless you are one of those who follows our futures portfolio, lay off (actually, bet the opposites—Boston to win it all, Atlanta to win the pennant), but it’s good for us, because it helps hedge us that much closer to having a futures portfolio locked into profitability. As it stands, we’re still heavily in on Atlanta and Boston, and we will be, no matter what happens. But as we wait this out, we’re going to try to push the HOU/LA disaster scenario as close to being ok as possible. We still have a little ways to go.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +214. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +214. Low confidence.
