Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,609 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% across 948 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
NASCAR and MLB futures. The good stuff. For unit context on the futures: We started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 12.74 units of profit, and we have 558.74 units in the bankroll, with 518 units pending.
World Series
Eighteen units on this one, as we bring our overall remaining upside on Philadelphia up even to that on the Padres. This simplifies our scenarios a bit, though the split between the upside leaves the Padres a better NLCS winner for us. We’d love to place something on the Yankees or Guardians, since both present large downside for us, but the value isn’t there, especially with the Yankees. Hopefully the Guardians win and we can place some straightforward, positive-value plays on them. The goal remains to wipe out our entire all-time deficit, though the fact it’s a Phillies/Padres NLCS makes the upside much higher than that.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +350. Medium confidence. x9
NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas
It’s been a minute since NASCAR raced at one of these competitive intermediate tracks (Texas is a bit unusual), but when we left them there, Toyotas were cruising. Especially Bubba Wallace. We don’t think he should be the favorite or anything, but it’s surprising to see his odds this low. It’s almost like the market is expecting recent winners to lose, which is different from being wary of overvaluing recent winners. We’ll bet on Wallace being more than 1-in-26 likely to win today.
Pick: Bubba Wallace to win +2500. Low confidence.
