Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,362 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
We’ve got today’s MLB futures, and we’ve got a little NFL. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 114.34 units, or 15.2%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 4–11–5; we’re down 7.54 units; and we’re down 38%. We’ve been getting smoked.
World Series (Hedge)
More of the same hedge today, with it still looking like the least bad option. 22 units on it today. Depending what happens in Game 1 of the ALCS, we may have a different move tomorrow, or it may be more of the same.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +200. Medium confidence. x11
Minnesota @ Chicago
We like everything about this, which might be a terrible sign given our young track record. We like the underachieving team playing the bad team. We like the even three points on the spread. We like that we’re betting the –115 side, the side towards which the odds lean. We’re on the road team, and the Vikings don’t have Justin Jefferson, but we’re going to walk into the woodchipper one more time before we start to pivot.
Pick: Minnesota –3 (–115). Low confidence.
