Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,950 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,411 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today are MLB futures and single-game NFL. Here’s the context on each:
MLB futures – In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We placed two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, as usual, then pivoted to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs, as usual. We’re currently big fans of the Guardians and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers to win it all.
Single-game NFL bets – We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, though, we’re 11–6 and up 4.25 units.
World Series
It was a tough few days for our MLB futures portfolio. We went from having well over a thousand units of combined upside across the Tigers and Padres, two teams who led their respective LDS 2–1, to seeing both eliminated. Now, our expected return is slightly negative, a 6% loss, per FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds.
We have liabilities on everyone but the Guardians, at least in one market, but the Guardians are the only team on whom we’re seeing value today. So, we’ll just do one bet, putting two more units on the highest-value play on the board, this Guardians World Series future. That leaves our scenarios looking like this, with plenty more bets coming over the next few weeks:
| ALCS | NLCS | World Series | Final Net |
| CLE | NYM | CLE | 282.80 |
| CLE | LAD | CLE | 264.47 |
| CLE | NYM | NYM | 257.80 |
| NYY | NYM | NYM | 201.40 |
| NYY | NYM | NYY | -69.20 |
| NYY | LAD | NYY | -87.53 |
| CLE | LAD | LAD | -238.53 |
| NYY | LAD | LAD | -294.93 |
Go Mets tonight. If the Mets win, our average return is once again a profit.
Pick: Cleveland to win +550. Medium confidence.
Cincinnati @ New York Giants
We don’t think NFL home-field advantage is lower than 1.8 points. The FPI gap here is 5.3 points, minus home-field advantage. What’s worked for us this season is trusting FPI, even when it’s uncomfortable. That’s got us looking for our second Giants win. (We bet the night games because one of our less successful efforts was trying to choose which game to bet.)
Pick: New York Giants +3.5 (–105). Low confidence.
