Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,615 published picks, not including pending futures. 0% isn’t positive, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have futures again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Tampa Bay @ Boston
I believe overs are now 3-6-1 so far in the playoffs, which doesn’t mean anything but might be pulling the market downward. The wind’s blowing in at Fenway, but it’s humid and these lineups have a whole lot of pop, with the long men in the Red Sox bullpen likely out of the equation, which might force Alex Cora to roll the dice a bit more than he’d like to. We’ll see. Best value in this game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Houston @ Chicago (AL)
Luis Garcia is legitimate, Dylan Cease is good but appears likely to be leaned upon heavily, which is hard to do. Again, the wind’s blowing in from right, but it’s a hot day with some humidity in Chicago, and the Astros are in a position to turn the screws all the way down.
Pick: Houston to win +100. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
ALDS: Tampa Bay vs. Boston
I don’t know if Boston should be favored in this series, but it’s close. There are health questions, and Friday’s outburst doesn’t fully answer them, but it offers something of an answer, and a positive one at that.
Pick: Boston to win +130. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Evidently the market was very attached to the Brewers winning a Brandon Woodruff start.
They’re fine. They’ve got some solid Game 4 options, they’re in a good place overall, and for our purposes, putting this down helps open up some Rays/Brewers paths, or at least get them closer to profitability.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +385. Low confidence.
World Series
Same story, and one thing to note here is that the Dodgers are still in a dogfight out west. No sure thing over there.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1000. Low confidence.
