Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,907 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
It’s just the NFL today for us. Here’s the context on that market.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 10–14–5; we’re down 5.17 units; and we’re down 18%. I don’t know if this is a good thing or not, but the results have been better lately.
Dallas @ Philadelphia
We did this test a lot yesterday with 2.5 or 3-point spreads favoring home teams in college football. We lost more of those than we won. But! That’s kind of the question when you have a three-point line. Are the Eagles better than the Cowboys? We think so. We think they cover three points at home.
Pick: Philadelphia –3 (–112). Low confidence.
