Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,214 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Florida A&M @ Georgia
It’s year three for Tom Crean at Georgia, and while he’s got a number one pick to show for his time there, that number one pick didn’t exactly turn in a lot of wins in his one season on campus.
This is expected to be a blowout, and that’s fair. But there’s no reason to believe Georgia’s going to be better than last year, and a team of last year’s quality is more likely than not, statistically, to win by fewer than 20 points in a home game against FAMU. Trust KenPom on this one.
Pick: Florida A&M +21 (-110). Low confidence.
TCU vs. Liberty
The question here is whether the market’s found equilibrium on Liberty after two impressive wins against mediocre SEC competition. The answer is, as it often is with these things, that the market’s probably overreacting. TCU isn’t great, but they’re better than Mississippi State and South Carolina, and they have far and away the most competent defense of the three. Liberty isn’t going to shoot 42% on three’s all season. Don’t expect them to do it again today.
Pick: TCU -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Tech vs. Houston
It’s the game of the day, and one of the best games of the young season. Two fringe title contenders, going at it in Ft. Worth.
Both programs are defense-forward, and both employ a tempo on the more deliberate side of things. Still, each has an effective offense, and each is likely to spend a lot of time on the free throw line against the other. It’s unclear how much Caleb Mills will play today, but the best guess seems to be that he’ll play perhaps 20-25 minutes, a portion large enough that it shouldn’t too dramatically alter the total.
Pick: Over 131.5 (-110). Low confidence.
