Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,391 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
There’s a lot of good college basketball today.
This isn’t really that.
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Peter’s
The Peacocks are down; most of last year’s team lost to Seton Hall, the transfer portal, and presumably some graduation (apologies—I forget the specifics). They’ve been playing fine, though, and while Fairleigh Dickinson’s outperformed extremely low expectations, they haven’t shattered those. This leans Peacock.
Pick: Saint Peter’s -6.5 (-114). Low confidence.
Alabama State @ Ohio
Alabama State’s had a challenging start, but mostly due to playing the buy game circuit. They aren’t good, but they could be competitive here and there within the SWAC, which isn’t nothing. Ohio, meanwhile, has been fine, but inconsistent and weak on defense. This doesn’t have a whole lot of upset potential, but it wouldn’t be shocking if it came down to the wire.
Pick: Alabama State +16.5 (-106). Low confidence.
