Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 679 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Morgan State vs. Evansville
Since beating Kentucky twelve days ago, Evansville is 1-3, with their only victory coming over a non-Division I opponent. Since arriving in the Bahamas, they’ve lost by significant margins to East Carolina and George Washington, ranked 239th and 244th respectively by KenPom.
What’s going on?
It’s hard to say, exactly, but it’s looking more and more like the performance in Lexington was simply a fluke, the sort of thing that sometimes happens with adolescents playing sports (or anyone playing sports, for that matter). Whatever’s going on, Evansville’s in a free-fall, and the odds have yet to catch up.
Pick: Morgan State +10 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Carolina @ Stetson
The line on this game is ten points, and that’s about five points too high, if you’d rather take the spread. The expected value of either the spread or the moneyline is high, because both seem to be grossly overestimating the importance of rest.
Stetson is playing their third game in three days, with two players playing more than thirty minutes in each. They’re likely fatigued, but at the same time, their rotation runs eight to ten players deep—they aren’t exactly a one-platoon team.
Also of note is that yesterday, Stetson played their best basketball game yet this season, upsetting Monmouth by eight. Rest matters, and should be considered when evaluating a line. The same can be said of psychological effects. The truth of it, though, is that with college sports, we don’t really know how much of an impact either has on outcomes, and from what we do know, the impact is smaller than five points.
Pick: Stetson to win (+425). Low confidence.
North Texas vs. Utah State
Utah State legitimized themselves in the eyes of many with their comeback victory over LSU on Friday. Down 19 points with 16:32 remaining, they came back to win by two despite still missing Neemias Queta, their best player. It was a thrilling, dramatic game, and it legitimized their top 25 ranking.
Except…it didn’t.
KenPom only has Utah State rated as the 49th-best team in the country, slightly down from 47th, where they entered Friday. LSU isn’t a top 25 team themselves (25, to be clear, is an arbitrary threshold, but we’re talking narratives here and the number 25 has a lot to do with those), and Utah State only won by two despite shooting fifty percent on three’s. It wasn’t exactly an awe-inspiring performance.
When Queta returns, yes, this team might be a lot better than the numbers currently estimate them to be. Until then, though, keep a close eye on all lines involving Utah State.
Pick: North Texas +13.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Editor’s Note: Due to the early tip of Morgan State/Evansville, we posted the picks before that game started, independently of the blurbs. So, if you’re looking back and you’re curious why it was updated after that tipped, that’s why—no picks were changed.
