Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,832 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Tennessee vs. North Carolina
Do not expect Tennessee to shoot 18% from three again today.
Pick: Tennessee to win -145. Medium confidence.
UNC-Greensboro vs. Florida International
Maybe FIU’s getting a home court bump here? If so, it’s a huge one, and St. Petersburg isn’t really all that close to Miami, especially for a program not exactly known for a well-traveling fanbase.
Pick: UNC-Greensboro to win -130. Medium confidence.
Colorado State vs. Creighton
Creighton’s young and figuring things out, especially with Shereef Mitchell still working his way up to full strength. So far, it’s going well. This should be a good one, but it leans towards the Jays.
Pick: Creighton to win +140. Low confidence.
