Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 657 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
UCF @ Illinois State
This exact matchup, back in the 2017 NIT, was in a large way responsible for this blog’s existence. Ask my colleague NIT Stu for the details, but since it’s happening again, a note of gratitude.
UCF and Illinois State have traveled in divergent directions since 2017. UCF suffered a down year in 2017-18, with Tacko Fall hurt, but roared back last season to come inches away from a Sweet 16 appearance. Now, with B.J. Taylor, Fall, and Aubrey Dawkins all gone, it’s a rebuilding season, and with the AAC looking strong again this year, it could become a long one.
Illinois State started from a better place. Though UCF won that 2017 game, Illinois State was the more notable team on the season, having lost only six games between the regular season and the Missouri Valley tournament, two of which came to a Wichita State that finished the season rated the eight-best in the country by KenPom. Redbirds coach Dan Muller memorably tweeted out a bitmoji imploring power conference foes to schedule his team, a move that worked in the short term (Illinois State had one of the strongest nonconference schedules in Division I in 2017-18), but made little difference in the long run. The next year, the program began a steady decline to its current state, below the national median.
A question affecting this game is whether Illinois State will be getting Matt Chastain back from a broken hand that’s kept him sidelined so far. There’s been no definitive word, at least that I’ve seen, but while Chastain’s one of Illinois State’s best returning players, even his presence in the lineup shouldn’t flip this from the expected narrow UCF victory the numbers predict.
Pick: UCF +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Dartmouth @ UMass-Lowell
Dartmouth has finished in last place in the Ivy League each of the last three seasons. Things looked more promising entering this year, with Cornell down and the entire core returning from a team that made significant strides forward last season.
Then, Brendan Barry got hurt.
Barry was Dartmouth’s starting point guard last season, playing the 39th-highest share of minutes of anyone in Division I (which is slightly more impressive when considering how the Ivy League plays nearly the entirety of its schedule in a format requiring teams to play two games in 30 hours). He was a good shooter (41.3% on 167 three-point attempts). He hardly ever fouled (1.7 per 40 minutes). His turnovers were low (13.5 per 100 possessions “used”, right around the first quartile for Division I players, and presumably higher among point guards, since the stat favors catch-and-shoot players).
It’s unclear what injury Barry’s dealing with, but he’s reportedly out for the season, and Dartmouth misses him. Their offense is not effective, with a high turnover rate and a poor shooting percentage. Their defense has picked up a lot of the slack, holding Buffalo to 0.85 points per possession in a road upset and holding two opponents under 50 since then, but, again, the offense projects to be too big a problem for the team to compete. Yesterday, in the second day of a three-day spat of games in Lowell, Jacksonville held Dartmouth to just 37 points.
UMass-Lowell’s struggling defense (rated the 30th-worst in Division I by KenPom) is a problem of its own, and might seem to be exactly what Dartmouth needs. What they really need, though, is Brendan Barry.
Pick: UMass-Lowell +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wake Forest @ Charlotte
Charlotte’s upset of Davidson Tuesday night was stunning. The Wildcats were about a ten-point favorite. They were expected to be one of the primary Atlantic-10 contenders. Charlotte was a lowly Conference USA team coming off an 8-21 year.
It wasn’t just the fact that Charlotte won that was surprising. It was that Charlotte won by 13, led the whole way, and three minutes into the second half was up 46 to 22.
Should more be expected of Charlotte than was previously?
Yes. Most certainly.
Should they only be a three-point underdog against a visiting Wake Forest?
Probably not.
Charlotte allowed Davidson only three offensive rebounds and two free throws. Those are great numbers, but they’re a lot easier to pull off against Davidson, who was in Division I’s lowest quartile for offensive rebounding percentage and free throw attempt/field goal attempt ratio last season, than for Wake Forest, who, for all their flaws, excelled at getting to the line and getting second chances last year.
Charlotte should be taken seriously.
They’re still projected to finish last in Conference USA.
Pick: Wake Forest -3 (-110). Low confidence.
