Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,353 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Formula 1, college basketball:
Brazilian Grand Prix
Mercedes is better, but there’s still no reason to doubt Verstappen enough to pick anyone else today.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +150. Low confidence.
VMI @ Davidson
I don’t know if there’s some twisted Davidson-Wright State-Louisville logic shaping this, but it’s a stretch. VMI looked fine in their opener. Davidson should be down this year. We like the Keydets to keep it respectable.
Pick: VMI +19 (-110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma State @ Oakland
The wrong way to react to Oklahoma State losing to Southern Illinois is to discount the Pokes. Yes, they underperformed, but SIU is poised to be a trendy mid-major in twelve weeks, if not sooner. Oakland, meanwhile, is a little notorious and is playing at home, but just shouldn’t have the players to compete.
Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
