Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,930 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
It’s a little college basketball, and one pick in the NFL. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: It’s bad. On the season, we’re 2–5. We’re down 3.14 units. It’s still early, though.
Single-game NFL bets: Also bad. On the season, we’re 11–15–6. We’re down 5.28 units; and we’re down 17%. It is not early.
Green Bay @ Pittsburgh
We don’t have much faith in the Packers right now, and we love a three-point line. That’s where we get so many pushes. We accept pushes right now.
Pick: Pittsburgh –3 (–115). Low confidence.
Yale @ Loyola Marymount
We aren’t sure what to make of LMU, but we like Yale offensively, we like overs in general right now thanks to the block/charge rule change (though we’re wary of systems and the market both catching up fast on that), and it’s possible LMU wants to play with more pace than last year. It’s a lot of small theories, and on a limited day during a cold patch, that’s enough.
Pick: Over 147.5 (–110). Low confidence.
