Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 630 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today, all in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Alabama State @ Missouri State
Alabama State is in the midst of the sort of non-conference gauntlet that’s common among the basketball programs of cash-strapped HBCU’s. The Hornets played Gonzaga in Spokane on Tuesday, the first of thirteen straight games played away from home, six of which come against teams rated by KenPom to be among the fifty best in the country. With trips to Houston, Tennessee, and VCU up next, today’s game at Missouri State is the best chance for this particular SWAC team to post a competitive result until the end of the month.
One positive from Tuesday’s blowout up in the Northwest was the team’s nine-of-sixteen performance from beyond the arc. Junior Jacoby Ross led the effort, making four of five. The five-foot-nine Ross was a deep threat his freshman year in 2017-18, shooting 37.9% on 124 three-point attempts, but last season, he shot only 32.6% as his attempts increased to 193. If he and the rest of the visitors from Montgomery can get hot, they could create a lot of problems for a Missouri State team that finished last year with the second-worst three-point defense in the country.
Even shooting well, Alabama State will struggle. They turned the ball over 21 times on Tuesday, and while Missouri State’s no Gonzaga, they did force turnovers at a rate among the 25 highest in Division I last season. Still, with the Bears happy to slow it down on offense, signs point to the visitors being slightly more likely than not to cover today. Slightly is sometimes the best you can get.
Pick: Alabama State +17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Winthrop @ Fresno State
Over the last four seasons, Winthrop has consistently been one of the highest-tempo teams in Division I men’s basketball, peaking last year at an adjusted tempo of 72.7 possessions per game, with the 14th-quickest length of an average offensive possession. On Thursday, though, in their opener with Hartford, the Eagles looked content to play Hartford’s pace, keeping the game down around 68 possessions. It’s possible this was an aberration, perhaps even caused by leading for almost all the game. It’s also possible that having graduated four seniors last year, Pat Kelsey’s rotation is too small to sustain such a breakneck pace.
Fresno State is a fairly conventional program when it comes to tempo, but they did moderately push the pace against Oregon in Tuesday’s opener. It’s possible, though, that this was an adjustment designed to combat Oregon’s preferred glacial rate of play. Time will tell us more about both team’s preferred style, but the continued absence of expected starting point guard Noah Blackwell should continue to weaken the home team’s offense, which was already thinned by graduation, while further encouraging them to slow the pace.
Pick: Under 147.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Portland @ San Jose State
Portland and San Jose State surprised in their respective Division I openers. Portland hung around against USC. San Jose State beat Hofstra on the road.
Neither of these results would be particularly impressive for college basketball teams you see on TV, but Portland and San Jose State are not teams you’re likely to see on TV this year, unless you are either a) unusually invested in college basketball or b) invested in the Mountain West or WCC. They, like many of the 353 Division I basketball teams, reside on the portion of the iceberg below water level. But odds are offered on them nonetheless, so we keep an eye on them here.
Overall, Portland is expected to be the better team between these two, but with the game in San Jose, that’s superseded in the line by the Spartans’ home court advantage. Results so far would indicate San Jose’s had the better year, as their eight-point victory at Hofstra is eleven points better than Portland’s eleven-point loss at USC after adjusting for the strength of each opponent. Still, it’s just one result, and while each team figures to take noticeable steps forward this year, Portland’s starting from a better position.
Pick: Portland +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
