Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,409 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Colorado @ St. Louis
Germán Márquez has a 4.12 FIP, a 4.26 xERA, and a 6.21 ERA.
Buy. Buy. Buy.
Pick: Colorado to win +140. Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago (NL)
This run line is long because the over/under’s at six on a cold, damp day in Chicago when the wind’s blowing in.
So many of Kyle Hendricks’s struggles so far have come against the home run, though, and the Pirates’ offense is so sad right now, that these odds may have overcorrected for the lack of expected scoring, a larger share of which should come from the Pittsburgh side of the scoreboard.
Pick: Chicago (NL) -1.5 (+140). Low confidence.
