Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,828 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo had it’s first 0-for day, losing both and dropping narrowly into the red. Still healthily in the black on totals, so just one of those today, plus futures (we intend to get up to a total of 100 NHL futures units invested when this is all said and done, but we have an extra 100 set aside for hedging, if you’re looking to scale) and NASCAR/F1 bets.
Edmonton @ Los Angeles
The totals have risen here, but they do leave some space, and Gelo, which sees 5 as a likelier total than 7 tonight, will take it.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-114). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We have to double up on someone unless we’re going to take negative value today, and the Capitals are our choice. Our payout on them winning the first round series, should that happen, is rather low, and they’re leading 2-1 with home-ice advantage yet still face the longest odds, in the books, of any team in the East. We’ll grab them while they’re here.
Pick: Washington to win +1600. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
This is only ever-so-narrowly a positive-value play, but it’s positive, and with nothing previously down on the Bruins, we’ll take it, making our remaining holes just the Avalanche, Panthers, Lightning, and Flames. Those are some big holes, but our upside’s large enough elsewhere that our hedging prospects remain strong.
Pick: Boston to win +2500. Low confidence.
Goodyear 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington)
Does success across seasons follow the driver or the car? We’re taking a chance on the former with a lot of these, where guys who’ve traditionally done well at Darlington are in new rides. One guy who isn’t in a new ride is Denny Hamlin, the winner of last year’s Southern 500 and two other Darlington races in the last six years. Not a bad anchor.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: Erik Jones to win +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: Austin Dillon to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +6600. Low confidence.
Miami Grand Prix
A weird little combination here. Our indications are that Ferrari has the strongest pair of cars of any team down in Florida, but at the same time, Charles Leclerc’s at -125, and it’s fairly extreme to see someone favored over the entire field. It might be fair, but given how many things can go wrong—especially on a previously-unraced course—we’ll ride with Sainz, who should have a comparable car, and Verstappen, who doesn’t have a bad car and would be the favorite if something were to go wrong for Leclerc or were an alternate strategy to pay off.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Carlos Sainz to win +750. Low confidence.
