Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 208 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Six picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Washington @ Philadelphia
Juan Soto was placed on the IL yesterday, and Andrew Stevenson was recalled from Fresno to take his place.
Beyond the fact that the Nationals’ AAA affiliate is Fresno, in what I’d assume is one of the most geographically disparate relationships of its kind, the most interesting thing about this is Stevenson, a prospect unaccompanied by great hopes who spent portions of 2017 and 2018 with the big league club, in addition to a few games at the MLB level already this year.
Over his career, Stevenson has posted only a 51 wRC+, and while his profile suggests he has some untapped power to go with his notable speed, that power would likely be significant only in relation to how little power he’s displayed so far: his ISO (the gap between his slugging percentage and batting average, used to roughly measure a player’s penchant for extra base hits) is .050 over his young career, much worse than even the worst qualified hitters last season.
In short, the Nationals want Juan Soto back in the outfield as soon as possible (along with Michael Taylor, who left last night’s game with a wrist injury). But maybe Stevenson can outperform himself for a week and give the team a much-needed spark.
Pick: Washington to win +150. Low confidence.
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
The Pirates are having a streaky year.
After winning five straight in mid-April, they led the NL Central, and FanGraphs even had them at a 23.1% chance of making the playoffs.
An eight-game losing streak immediately followed, and while they’ve righted the ship somewhat (they’re back to .500 after three wins in four games), their stay on the fringes of the playoff picture was short-lived.
Their talent is fairly young, still (Josh Bell and much of the rotation are under the age of 29), so their deadline moves will be interesting to watch if they do, indeed, end up out of Wild Card range, especially given their unconventional trading behavior these last few years. If someone on the current roster is going to bring in a piece that can help as soon as next year, that someone is going to have to heat up fast. Otherwise, it’s just a waiting game in Pittsburgh—one without a clear outcome.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +110. Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Chicago (NL)
José Quintana’s time on the North Side has been good enough. He pitched well down the stretch in 2017 (3.74 ERA) and contributed a solid start, plus some crucial relief help, in that wild NLDS win over the Nationals. But he got rocked in the clinching Game 5 of that year’s NLCS, and last year was far and away his worst big-league season.
It’s early in 2019, but through nearly 20% of his potential starts, Quintana is posting encouraging results. His strikeout numbers, if he keeps up the pace, will be the best they’ve ever been, and his walks are down dramatically from last year. He still needs to bring down the home runs substantially if he’s going to be the pitcher he was from 2014-2016, but things are trending in the right direction for the 30 year-old.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -130. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ New York (AL)
The Yankees activated Miguel Andujar from the IL yesterday, effectively receiving him for James Paxton in their one-in-one-out injury exchange.
While Andujar isn’t the most significant Yankee to deal with injuries this season (where to begin?), they’re undoubtedly thrilled to have him back in the Bronx. His defense last season, in what was his rookie campaign, drew strong criticism from numbers that evaluate such things, but he was 30th among all qualified hitters in wRC+, bashing 27 home runs and drawing deserved Rookie of the Year attention.
Where his career goes in the long term is, of course, both intriguing and unknowable, but if he can produce similarly at the plate to last season, and at least take steps towards adequacy on defense, he could be a game-changer in what’s right now an odd AL East race.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -135. Low confidence.
Boston @ Chicago (AL)
Dylan Covey makes his first start of the year for the White Sox today, after a 2018 in which he sometimes dazzled (a near-complete game shutout of the Mariners in July), sometimes disappointed (a nine-run, three-inning, strikeout-less dud against the Rangers in June), but on the aggregate gave South Siders some cause for hope after a woeful 2017.
While Covey is starting today because of necessity (Carlos Rodón is on the IL and may need Tommy John surgery), another Dylan waits in the wings.
Dylan Cease is performing strongly at AAA Charlotte (3.33 ERA in five starts) after a dominant 2018 saw him climb through high-A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. Evaluations of him vary, but he’s at least in consideration on virtually all top prospect lists, coming in on FanGraphs at 58th overall and 5th in the White Sox system.
White Sox general manager Rick Hahn made clear the other day that even with Rodón out, the franchise has no plans to rush Cease, but barring setbacks, it’s probably only a matter of time before the former Cubs’ sixth-round pick gets his chance in the bigs.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +150. Low confidence.
Houston vs. Anaheim
Mike Trout did not reach base yesterday, which is the first time this has happened in a major league game since September. Trevor Cahill got rocked, Chris Stratton got rocked, and the Angels could do little against Wade Miley. Another day in the office for a franchise whose struggles need more of an anecdote than Shohei Ohtani returning to the lineup (though that will help when it happens here in a week or two).
No, the Angels’ problems run deeper. The cupboard is brutally bare when it comes to pitching. The lineup is full of holes. Outfielder Jo Adell is one of the game’s best prospects, but he won’t arrive until 2021, and minor-leaguers that far away inherently come with a wide degree of uncertainty. And beyond him, there isn’t much in the farm system to be actively excited about (though players like José Suarez may at least contribute positively and consistently).
So what should the Angels do? Well, Trout is clearly the guy around which to build, and if Ohtani returns healthy to the mound, he’ll be immensely valuable. As the end of Albert Pujols’ contract draws closer (he’s signed through 2021, and is owed a combined $59 million over 2020 and 2021), it becomes more likely the Anaheim brass will finally cut him loose. Could the Angels contend in 2020? For a Wild Card spot, sure, but it’s hard to see them competing with the Astros for the division title barring either an aggressive offseason spending spree or some major developments elsewhere.
If they don’t make 2020 work, their infield will become even more of an unknown, as Andrelton Simmons’ contract expires after next season.
Not a hopeless situation (Trout, Ohtani, and Adell could be great for years to come), but one devoid of asset diversity, and full of glaring flaws.
Pick: Anaheim to win +195. Low confidence.
