Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,385 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Ryan Pressly and Brooks Raley are probably both available, but each threw 19 pitches last night, which could translate into some fatigue. Not the only reason, but helps reinforce it.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito is probably fine.
Pick: Chicago (AL) -1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
Boston @ Texas
Garrett Richards has shown he can do it, which resets expectations on him to their prior median. Not going to be dominant, but can be expected to be serviceable (if he isn’t, that’s ok—that happens).
Pick: Boston to win -130. Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
This is a weird one in terms of the amount of value. The Diamondbacks are banged up, but not this banged up.
Pick: Arizona -1.5 (+140). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Seattle
I’m not ready to call the Mariners good, but in individual games, it keeps being unsurprising that they compete like they do.
Pick: Seattle +1.5 (-130). Low confidence.
