Editor’s Note: Joe downplays how good this is, but over a sample size of 250 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have a positive average return on investment when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to at least not lose money.
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Four picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN are all great sources of data.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
San Diego @ Toronto
Chris Paddack is the focal point in this game, and rightfully so—the Padres rookie is off to a thrilling start.
But starting for the Blue Jays is a familiar name who, though he’s fallen out of fashion, is once again having a great year.
Marcus Stroman’s 2018 was miserable, plagued by bad luck both on the field, where his FIP was 3.91 when his ERA was 5.54, and in his body, as he missed half the season with blisters and shoulder fatigue.
In 2019, though, Stroman is pitching admirably, and luck is breaking his way. His ERA sits at 2.81 entering today’s contest, while his FIP’s a strong 3.36.
Pick: Toronto to win +120. Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Milwaukee
The Phillies are trying to sweep the Brewers today, and oddsmakers like Milwaukee’s chances to get out of it ok.
Brandon Woodruff is probably a large part of that confidence.
After throwing just over 40 innings in each of the last two seasons, Woodruff is now a full-time major league starter for the Brewers, an endeavor that’s working out for both parties. In 10 starts, Woodruff’s compiled a 6-1 record alongside a 3.51 ERA, and his 3.24 FIP indicates that ERA might improve slightly as the year goes on.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +152. Low confidence.
Boston @ Houston
Remember when Mookie Betts was saying he needed to play better?
He’s done just that.
After a rough start to the season, in which he posted just a 75 wRC+ over his first 19 games, he’s already righted himself, entering today with a 135 wRC+. This turnaround can be largely traced to a 13-game tear over the end of April and first two days of May in which he slashed .449/.533/.735, effectively erasing his early futility. No, he isn’t last year’s otherworldly 185 wRC+ hitter, but Mookie Betts is more than alright.
Pick: Over 8 -120. Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Chicago (NL)
What’s the best pitcher’s park in the game?
According to data so far this season, it’s Wrigley Field, showcasing more than anything just how volatile conditions are on Chicago’s North Side. In each of the last two seasons, it was a top-ten hitter’s park, but in 2016, it was the sixth-best for pitchers.
In other words, wind matters, and temperature likely does too.
Today, that wind is forecast to lightly blow in from left-center, with temperatures around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
Pick: Under 7.5 -110. Low confidence.
