Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 242 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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Oakland @ Detroit
About two weeks ago, A’s starter Mike Fiers threw the second no-hitter of his career. With fewer than 1,000 major league innings on his résumé, a 4.10 career ERA, and his best season by fWAR a 2.7 back in 2012, Mike Fiers has now thrown two no-hitters.
This isn’t to rip on Mike Fiers or diminish what he did. It’s just odd. And this year’s is odder than the last one, which came in what was probably his second-best season back in 2015. In 2019, Fiers is pitching above replacement level, but also above 5.00 in both ERA and FIP. At one point in April he allowed six earned runs in three straight starts.
At the very least, you can never count Mike Fiers out.
Pick: Detroit to win +180. Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Cincinnati
When Hyun-Jin Ryu is healthy, he’s masterful, and this season has been no exception. The Dodgers’ South Korean import enters today’s start boasting a 1.72 ERA that, even with a low BABIP and a high LOB% washed out, translates to a 2.70 FIP. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts, at least eight in each of his last three, and hasn’t given up a run now in 25 straight innings.
Tanner Roark does not share Hyun-Jin Ryu’s ceiling. He’s a reliable, serviceable starter who since entering the majors full-time in 2014 has eclipsed 180 innings in four of five seasons, managed an ERA under 3.00 in two of those, and generally been a pretty good pitcher. But he isn’t out here spinning shutouts and 25-inning scoreless streaks.
This year is shaping up to be one of Roark’s better seasons. His ERA sits at 3.50 through nine starts, and while his innings per start are down by about an inning from the last three years, he’s still exceeding expectations when it comes to WAR.
His ground-ball percentage has dropped notably, accompanied by a sizeable shift away from sinkers, away from curveballs, and into sliders. Whether this is his doing, his catchers’ doing, or the work of his new coaching staff is unclear—though a dive into Reds pitchers’ pitch selection would be a good thing to explore, given the staff is one of the best in the MLB under new pitching coach Derek Johnson. Whatever the case, it seems to be working, even if his 4.3% HR/FB ratio is likely to regress, with a little pain along the way.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +160. Low confidence.
