Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 887 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Bucknell @ Boston University—Patriot League Semifinal
These two played eight days ago, with Bucknell keeping it to a one-possession game at the end. A few weeks before that, Boston U beat the Bison by twenty. Today will likely land between those two, with Boston U holding their guests at bay. Bucknell just doesn’t have the offense to hang with Colgate’s best competition atop the Patriot League.
Pick: Boston University -6 (-115). Low confidence.
Bradley vs. Valparaiso—Missouri Valley Conference Championship
Valparaiso will be playing their fourth game in four days today.
Don’t be so sure that means they won’t score.
For one thing, even if that narrative does hold water, it would have to hold quite a lot to justify the total being this low. For the other, fatigue can translate to poor defense just as much as it can translate to poor shooting. I haven’t done enough digging to fully cast doubt on the idea that totals should go down as conference tournaments go on, but looking at the numbers, we can at least cast doubt on this particular total.
Pick: Over 134.5 (-110). Low confidence.
