Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,052 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another conference tournament future today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. Also, NASCAR, down at the bottom, for which the odds also come from Bovada for the same reason. First, though:
Delaware vs. Drexel
Both teams are efficient at shooting, neither plays great defense, both regular season matchups went over this total with fairly low possession counts.
Pick: Over 142 (-110). Medium confidence.
Boston University @ Navy
This isn’t necessarily the same Navy team that beat Virginia on opening night, or Furman a week and a half later. It’s a solid one, though, with a defense that should make things hard for the Terriers. The implication behind this line is that BU is better than Navy. I’m not sure what would lead one to that conclusion.
Pick: Navy -2.5 (-112). Medium confidence.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Troy
This isn’t a direct hedge against our ULL future, but it serves a little bit of that purpose, and it’s a good value play. Troy can force turnovers, taking advantage of the Ragin’ Cajuns’ biggest weakness, and in a game heavy on free throws and offensive rebounds, they’re a fine bet.
Pick: Troy +1.5 (-114). Medium confidence.
Sun Belt Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament
The thing about Troy’s situation is that, while Appalachian State’s potentially down a man (from an already thin rotation), giving Georgia State an advantage today, Georgia State’s a poorer team than the Mountaineers on paper. In other words, Troy’s value is higher than the numbers suggest, and the numbers suggest it’s positive.
Pick: Troy to win +375. Medium confidence.
Pick: Troy to win +375. Medium confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Pennzoil 400 (Las Vegas)
Early returns from the new Cup car indicate there’s more pressure on the driver and less each team can do mechanically. This favors Kyle Larson (who we’d take at +425 or better), and it also favors these guys, who’ve each historically performed well at Las Vegas and who each recorded multiple 1.5-mile top 5’s last year. Hendrick drivers and Ryan Blaney are getting love in the market, and that’s fair, but they’re looking overpriced. More value in these mid-tier options today.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +2800. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +3300. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +4000. Low confidence.
