Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,714 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
For context on the college basketball futures: We started with 100 units in our portfolio, intending to keep 50 set aside in case we want to hedge down the line. We’re up 1.5 units so far, and we only had 1 unit pending entering today.
Sun Belt Conference Tournament
South Alabama is better than their conference seed, but that doesn’t mean they’re better than James Madison. If anything, this was thought to be a four-team league and it’s really a five-team league. So, it doesn’t add up that South Alabama’s odds are so much narrower than those of James Madison. Especially when James Madison’s a narrow favorite tonight. Hit the bad line, take the value, know it’s still more likely to lose than win.
Pick: James Madison to win +350. Low confidence.
Summit League Conference Tournament
Our first medium confidence play in a long time. We’re just going for a double unit here, we don’t think this is any better value than our other futures. We have Oral Roberts 70% likely to win this tournament, that gives this a narrowly positive eROI.
Pick: Oral Roberts to win -220. Medium confidence.
Big Sky Conference Tournament
And lastly for today, Sacramento State. It looks like there was action on Weber yesterday, but the Weber undervaluing by the initial odds wasn’t so much a misread of Weber as it was a misread of Weber’s path. There’s a very real chance Montana State loses tonight. If that happens, the winner of Sac State/Weber won’t necessarily be favored in the semis, but will have a manageable path to the conference title game.
Pick: Sacramento State to win +1800. Low confidence.
Michigan @ Indiana
The last time these two teams played, the final score was 62–61. Don’t expect that today. For one thing, Michigan’s playing a lot better now, but for another, that was just a straightforwardly out of character game for both teams. The market seems to be making something of it. We won’t.
Pick: Over 144.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Northwestern @ Rutgers
One framing of the question here is that it’s a game to see whether Rutgers’s wheels are falling off. They’re 2–5 over their last seven and they just blew a comfortable lead in the closing minutes to Minnesota.
Lost in the collapse against Minnesota is that Rutgers’s defense, its pride and joy, did not play particularly well for the first 38 minutes either. Even before the Gophers surged back, Rutgers was letting them get more than a point per possession.
The other five times this year that Rutgers has let its opponent score 70 (which is five of its last seven losses, and hasn’t happened in a win all year), it’s held its next opponent to an average of 53 points. Those opponents haven’t been offensive juggernauts, but Northwestern was among them, and Northwestern isn’t exactly clicking right now. We like an ugly one in Piscataway.
Pick: Under 127.5 (-110). Low confidence.
