Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,902 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only the single-day (futures return tomorrow and are scheduled to be daily from there on out).
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 113–77–1 and we’re down 1.53 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Indiana @ Maryland
Rutgers @ Nebraska
We’re generally pretty anti-road-upset around here, but we’re especially that way with these two in the Big Ten today. Rutgers and Indiana have the capability to be scary, but we kind of believe in Maryland, and we really believe in Nebraska. Especially in this moment when they’re looking to lock in that tournament berth.
Pick: Parlay – Maryland & Nebraska to win (–188). Low confidence.
Bradley @ Drake
We trust the numbers, and the numbers tell us to trust Tucker DeVries. We think Drake’s had this one circled just as much as Bradley has, and that DeVries and his sidekicks show up to keep their at-large hopes alive.
Pick: Drake to win –195. Low confidence.
