Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,096 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: College basketball futures, college basketball spreads, and a Major League Baseball moneyline. We’re going back in on the college basketball spreads despite our terrible track record and recent bad performance. Make of that what you will.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 142–116–2 and we’re down 13.83 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We’re on a very cold streak. We went 1–7 on the Sweet Sixteen games.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week (lost about five percent of the portfolio), but we’ve rallied. Including today’s futures, our eROI is at an even zero percent. With a Duke win today, I believe that would rise, regardless of what Tennessee and Purdue do.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 2–1 so far, up 0.22 units.
Purdue vs. Tennessee
We think highly of Tennessee, but Purdue has been the better team all year. Wire to wire. They know Tennessee and have handled even an especially violent version of the Vols. We think the Boilermakers can make this happen.
Pick: Purdue –3 (–115). Low confidence.
Duke vs. NC State
At some point, NC State’s run will end, and we’ve seen a trend in recent years in which when these teams go, they go by a lot of points. We wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a laugher.
Pick: Duke –7 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
The value here is tremendous. It’s absurdly good. We wish it wasn’t, because we’re already heavily invested in Duke and Alabama, but that’s why it’s called gambling.
What I think has happened here is that books have a lot of liability on UConn, of course, and that liability is only growing, but also that books have a lot of liability on Purdue, who’s been a favorite all year and has recently morphed into a popular “dark horse.” Should Duke win today, we’ll hopefully have the leverage necessary to cover our butts, but we’ll have to see where the markets stand tomorrow, and where they stand as the week goes on.
Pick: Duke to win tournament +1400. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Alabama to win tournament +2000. Low confidence. x2
Minnesota @ Kansas City
This checks all our normal boxes, and it also checks the box we found in 2022 testing which indicated there might be an advantage to bet Saturday losers on Sunday. Brady Singer’s FIP far outpaced his ERA last year, for what that’s worth. (It’s usually worth a lot.)
Pick: Kansas City to win +107. Low confidence. (Ober and Singer must start.)
