Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,371 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. If you include pending futures and value them at their expected value (probability of success multiplied by payout), the average return on investment is an even 0% over 2,574 published picks. Make of all of that what you will. What we’re making of it is that we have a solid chance of ending the NCAA Tournament and NIT profitable or even all-time, but that it isn’t a sure thing. If we don’t enter MLB season positive, we’ll probably hold off on daily baseball bets and build a large futures portfolio there, since MLB futures is where our history’s the best.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline, as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
One more future today—a big bet on Kansas to get past Miami. First, though:
Kansas vs. Miami
Is Miami getting an ACC bump? It actually might be fair if they are. The ACC has overperformed in March, and since such a huge swath, and the more recent swath, of our pre-tournament season data was intraconference stuff, that isn’t meaningless.
Still, by this point, the ratings systems should have adjusted. The KenPom line should be true. Kansas should be fine today.
Pick: Kansas -5.5 (-111). Medium confidence.
North Carolina vs. Saint Peter’s
North Carolina and Duke seem to be the only teams not having trouble scoring in this tournament, and while that might continue for UNC, it’s hard to see Saint Peter’s putting a lot on the board. UNC’s the best defense the Peacocks have played since Kentucky (and is only narrowly worse than Kentucky on that front), and it’s hard to expect Saint Peter’s to replicate their 53% shooting from deep in that game, or even their 86% shooting from the free throw line. On the other side of the coin, if Saint Peter’s does win this, they’ll likely have stymied the Tar Heels.
Pick: Under 137.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Now, the future. Motorsports below that.
NCAA Tournament
Seventy units here. The value’s good, and it flips our profit probability on futures within the NCAA Tournament up to 78%, with a 100% profit probability (excluding futures not yet placed) should both Kansas and North Carolina win today. Should one or both of KU and UNC lose, the profit probability’s roughly 50%, though if both lose, our downside is much higher than our upside.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas to make Final Four -270. Medium confidence.
Finally, F1 and NASCAR:
Formula 1: Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia
Charles Leclerc and the Red Bull boys are justified favorites, but the odds are too tight on them. Sainz starts on the second row, Russell starts on the third row, and while Hamilton starts 15th, a 2.5% chance is realistic for a driver of his stature, especially with his teammate demonstrating that while Mercedes is still having issues, they aren’t wholly noncompetitive right now.
Pick: Carlos Sainz to win +700. Medium confidence.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton to win +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: George Russell to win +5000. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (Austin)
Chase Elliott has won half of NASCAR’s road course races over the last three years, so this starts with him. From there, all these guys have multiple top-fives at road courses over that same stretch. We’d put our chances of hitting on this assortment somewhere around 60%.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Joey Logano to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: A.J. Allmendinger to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Christopher Bell to win +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +3300. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Erik Jones to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Chris Buescher to win +10000. Low confidence.
