Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,795 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
The first of these is a hedge. I think it’s the right play, but it’s a hedge. We have an outstanding Creighton future—one unit at 25-to-1 to win the NCAA Tournament—and we’re up on futures so far this college basketball season, so we are engaging in some light hedging. The second is a straight bet.
San Diego State vs. Creighton
Two units on this (the hedge), but we do like San Diego State here. They’re so fierce defensively, and Creighton is cool and composed, but almost too much sometimes? Maybe I’ve watched the wrong Creighton games, but the team is almost too content. San Diego State is hungry. Hopefully I’m wrong—that 25-to-1 looks great right now—or hopefully we can thread the needle and Creighton wins by one or two, but we’re prepared for a San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic game in the Final Four, and we would advise you be prepared as well.
Pick: San Diego State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence. x2
Texas vs. Miami
Dylan Disu has been playing phenomenally, incredibly well. Also, he wasn’t really on the court during Texas’s game against Xavier, and the Longhorns did not miss them. Texas’s depth is incredible, and while Miami has done a whole lot, they aren’t some March bogeyman. They beat an Auburn team last year that wasn’t as good as its seed, and now Houston. The Houston win is the most impressive thing any college basketball team has done all year, but it’s a sample size of one. Let’s see them do something like it again.
Pick: Texas -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
