Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,041 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 137–104–1 and we’re down 6.46 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We had a good day yesterday, but we haven’t been stringing those together much lately.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we’ve got some solid value alive that should start cashing Thursday and Friday.
Minnesota @ Indiana State
Having watched Indiana State play SMU, you would expect an overreaction towards the over with this. However. That game was on ESPN+, it was an NIT game, and it was competing with the First Four. I don’t know how many people are really thinking about it with any detail. With Dawson Garcia a terrifying matchup for Robbie Avila defensively and Minnesota not a lockdown team themselves, I think we see the net get a workout this afternoon.
Pick: Over 163.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Georgia @ Wake Forest
Wake’s a lot better than Georgia, as this line implies. I think Georgia’s playing well and playing hard right now, but this is a lot to ask, and it’s the kind of thing where—as we saw yesterday with the two earlier NIT games—a team grabbing a moderate early lead is more likely to run away than in the NCAA Tournament.
Pick: Wake Forest –9 (–110). Low confidence.
Baylor vs. Clemson
Our lone NCAAT pick of the day is a deviation from kenpom, but we don’t trust Clemson to show up twice in a row. Six of Clemson’s last ten wins have been followed by a loss, and in four of those losses, the Tigers were the favorite.
Pick: Baylor –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
VCU @ South Florida
We don’t have much of a read on this one, but for as good of a coach as Amir Abur-Rahim is, I’m not sure discipline is South Florida’s strong suit. VCU is limited in terms of their ability, but I kind of expect the Rams to get in some South Florida heads.
Pick: VCU +3.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Iowa @ Utah
This will be high scoring. It’s a matter of how high that scoring is. We see this turning into one where long white guys are trading threes all night. We’re expecting electricity in Salt Lake City.
Pick: Over 166 (–105). Low confidence.
Boston College @ UNLV
Finally, we don’t love either side on this spread, because we’re not sure how sustainable UNLV’s recent surge is in the face of key injuries. We do, though, see two teams who are better offensively than defensively, and the numbers not getting out of hand on the other two totals we’ve bet today leads us to believe bettors may be expecting less scoring out of the NIT than what’s really happening. I believe it was 2019 when unders performed well all tournament?
Pick: Over 144 (–110). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Nine units on Final Four picks today, spread across four teams. This is the first time we’ve seen value good enough to take on Creighton or North Carolina. In the East, Illinois’s value is too good to pass up, even though we have a lot on them, while this is our first Iowa State Final Four future, even if we have a few on them making and winning the national title game. The prices on UConn are too high. They’re creating value elsewhere. Creighton and UNC? There’s too high a probability of an upset relative to what the market’s implying.
Pick: North Carolina to make Final Four +230. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Iowa State to make Final Four +360. Low confidence. x3
Pick: Creighton to make Final Four +500. Low confidence. x3
Pick: Illinois to make Final Four +650. Low confidence.
NIT
Wake Forest has a straightforward game today, and should then host Ohio State as roughly a 5 or 6-point favorite to reach the NIT Final Four. Then, they’d probably be around a 4-point favorite over most likely Seton Hall in the semifinal, before something more like a 1 or a 2-point favorite over Indiana State, Cincinnati, or another in the championship (if it’s another, the spread will be bigger). Basically? Wake’s favored the rest of the way. The market isn’t all-in yet on that perception. And while there’s some concern about a local-ish crowd at Hinkle Fieldhouse if the opponent’s Indiana State or Cincy, that isn’t an issue until the championship game.
Pick: Wake Forest to win +500. Low confidence.
