Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,307 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the lack of a consistently current, accurate Vegas Consensus online.
But first:
Illinois vs. Loyola
A question coming into the tournament was whether KenPom was accurately gauging Loyola, as the system had the Ramblers ranked ninth entering Friday’s game with Georgia Tech. An 11-point win later (over just 59 possessions), and Loyola’s still ninth.
How meaningful is that? It’s hard to say, but the fact Loyola outperformed the system’s expectations is promising. Loyola slows it down, which increases randomness and helps keep games naturally close. They play exceptional defense. Their defensive rebounding is superb, they shoot efficiently, and they don’t bail teams out with fouls.
Will Illinois win today? Probably.
Will Loyola cover? Probably.
Pick: Loyola +7 (-110). Low confidence.
Baylor vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin had similar questions to Loyola entering the tournament regarding KenPom’s evaluation of them. They also held pat in the rankings after bludgeoning North Carolina, and enter today still twelfth.
The Badgers protect the ball better than almost anyone in the nation. Can they do it against a Baylor team that thrives off forcing turnovers? We’ll see, but if there’s anyone who can do it, the Badgers are one of the few.
Pick: Wisconsin +6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Is Syracuse going to force West Virginia to shoot 25 threes?
Maybe.
But the Orange may fire off a comparable number themselves, West Virginia’s defense is not what it often is, and Syracuse has played its fastest offense in six years this season.
Don’t trust the stereotypes.
Pick: Over 147 (-110). Low confidence.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Evidently Chris Beard has a great record in the NCAA Tournament? Well, Eric Musselman’s is at least at expectations, at 3-3 overall as a 12-seed, two 7-seeds, and now a 3-seed.
A coach’s record in the tournament is almost always a small sample, and while it’s a unique sample, it’s debatable how unique it really is. This is pretty much an exact tossup on paper. Don’t discount the Hogs.
Pick: Arkansas +2 (-115). Low confidence.
East Region Champion
After yesterday, it’s tempting to swoon over Colorado and put a lot of money down on the Buffaloes to make a run.
That might be a smart move.
The Buffs have laid their eggs this year, but they’re still a phenomenal team on paper, and with the bottom half of the bracket opening up a good deal, there’s some inefficiency here. They only need to be roughly 12% likely to make it through the region to make this a positive-value play.
Pick: Colorado +750. Low confidence.
