Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,266 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More college basketball futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. The same is true for the motorsports bets, which are below the futures. First, though:
Virginia @ North Texas
North Texas played badly against Texas State, but it’s too tempting to make too much of that. It’s not like these guys don’t have postseason experience, either. They had a deeper run last March than Virginia did.
Pick: North Texas -1 (-110). Medium confidence.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa State
I am not a reliable evaluator of the Cyclones, so I’m trying to not make too much of my own lack of confidence on them here. Wisconsin protects the ball better than possibly anyone in the country, which will either negate Iowa State’s biggest strength or lead to some confusion when they find themselves in the midst of a good deal of pileups. Hopefully it’s the latter.
Pick: Iowa State +4.5 (-111). Medium confidence.
Arizona vs. TCU
With Baylor and Kansas underperforming yesterday, I wonder if there’s a little bit of a backlash against the Big 12 happening here after such a strong first round. TCU’s engineered pretty well for a wild-upset team, with all the offensive boards. Could go a lot of way, though.
Pick: TCU +10 (-112). Medium confidence.
NCAA Tournament
More picks on the Runner Up market, including a little value on Auburn, who’s nice to have in the fold. We’re leaning in heavily, too, on UCLA, who’s the new favorite in the East Region, at least briefly.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: UCLA to make Final Four +225. Medium confidence.
Pick: Auburn to be runner up +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Auburn to be runner up +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Auburn to be runner up +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Auburn to be runner up +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Auburn to be runner up +1400. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to be runner up +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to be runner up +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to be runner up +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Villanova to be runner up +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: TCU to be runner up +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: Ohio State to win +12500. Low confidence.
Formula 1: Bahrain Grand Prix
With the exception of one Covid-affected race in 2020, it’s been since 2019 that a non-Mercedes, non-Red Bull driver found the podium here. When that happened, it was Charles Leclerc for Ferrari. The odds on him are a bit tight today, but his teammate, Carlos Sainz, is starting in the top three. The market seems suspiciously low on Mercedes, too.
Pick: Carlos Sainz to win +750. Low confidence.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton to win +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Sergio Pérez to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: George Russell to win +2800. Low confidence.
IndyCar: XPEL 375 (Texas)
Scott Dixon’s been strong here, the other four have all contended in recent years and are generally competitive drivers, though they’ve struggled to win lately (Carpenter’s a part-time guy right now, but his oval results are solid). Rahal’s the weird one, starting last, but he did briefly lead a race a few years back after starting 20th, so the starting position shouldn’t be disqualifying.
Pick: Scott Dixon to win +500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Alexander Rossi to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Simon Pagenaud to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Graham Rahal to win +2500. Low confidence.
Pick: Ed Carpenter to win +5000. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 (Atlanta)
There’s a lot of uncertainty here because of the reconfigured Atlanta track, and there’s a chance it’ll turn into a chaotic day, as it’s been described as similar to a superspeedway, where explosive contact reigns. We used the results from last year at intermediate tracks as a guide, and those predictably led us to Larson.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: William Byron to win +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +1600. Low confidence.
