Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,774 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Futures context: We’re down 2.1 units on these for college basketball, with one unit pending on Oregon to win the NIT (11-to-1) and one on Creighton to win the NCAAT (25-to-1). We’re adding more today. First, though, some plays for the games themselves:
Xavier vs. Pitt
I’m not sure Xavier is fully firing on all cylinders, and while I don’t trust Pitt, that works in both directions.
Pick: Pitt +5 (-107). Low confidence.
Marquette vs. Michigan State
We’re going to zig here against the zaggers. Scared about Tyler Kolek’s wrist, but have to trust Marquette’s quality as a team.
Pick: Marquette -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana vs. Miami
If the early games go as expected, we’ll be facing a Big Ten/ACC elimination game here, which is exhilarating. The Big Ten is better, and so is Indiana.
Pick: Indiana -1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. TCU
This could be a great game, but I’m afraid it won’t be. TCU still looked out of sorts against Arizona State, and I’m not convinced the Eddie Lampkin situation isn’t a big distraction.
Pick: Gonzaga -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Liberty @ Wisconsin
I’m not too concerned about Wisconsin’s effort. That isn’t the question here, like it often is in the first two rounds for former NCAAT bubble teams. I’m just concerned that Liberty is better and that it’s an early tip and that Wisconsin might not have a great crowd.
Pick: Liberty +3.5 (-107). Low confidence.
Sam Houston State @ North Texas
Defense everywhere, but this total is low, especially if the refs try to get control of the game early.
Pick: Over 116.5 (-110). Low confidence.
East Region
Kansas State is getting no respect. They’re every bit as good as Kentucky, and even against full-strength Tennessee or Marquette, they’d only be something like a 4.5-point underdog. As for FAU: There is a chance they’re the best team in this region. They’ve played that well this year. They line up one slot ahead of K-State and Kentucky in KenPom, and they’re less of a known quantity, having played Conference USA for the last two and a half months. Add in their good draw today, and this should give us some Sweet Sixteen leverage.
Pick: FAU to win +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Kansas State to win +900. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
I don’t think Saint Mary’s is going to win the national championship. But like Creighton, I think they could. They’re good enough to do that. And as we’ve said elsewhere: It’s easy to like UConn’s crowd advantage in Albany today. It was easy to like it at Madison Square Garden last week too.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +4500. Low confidence.
NIT
Utah Valley’s an understandable underdog tonight in Boulder, but these are preposterous odds. The Wolverines play a KJ Simpson-less Colorado, and if they win that they get a home game because of Cincinnati’s floor maintenance, and if they win that they’re not going to be more than a three or four-point underdog in the Final Four. If they’re more than that? We’ll bet on them again.
Pick: Utah Valley to win +6500. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta
We said we’d only bet superspeedways in NASCAR until we figure out a model, and Atlanta now qualifies. Michael McDowell has won a Daytona 500. He can win this kind of race. And the fact that he can makes this a valuable price.
Pick: Michael McDowell to win +6600. Low confidence.
