Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,002 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only in single-day form. No futures markets open by the time we got to these.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 127–94–1 and we’re down 4.74 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We need a big March.
UAB vs. Temple
We think rest is generally overrated by the market, and we think the market might really be underestimating Temple, but we also believe there’s something to Andy Kennedy being a winning coach in March, we think the market might be underestimating a positively regressing UAB, and playing two fewer games in the last four days than this opponent should help the Blazers, especially given how good they are at getting to the free throw line and how inclined Temple is to foul.
Pick: UAB –7 (–113). Low confidence.
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Illinois strikes me as a program who really wants to win the Big Ten Tournament. I think they wanted this more than Purdue did. Less looking ahead from Illinois.
Wisconsin? I do think they want to win, but having not seen Greg Gard win a Big Ten Tournament before, we trust Illinois more here.
Pick: Illinois –3.5 (–115). Low confidence.
