Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,193 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
The end of our conference tournament futures today, and those two moneylines, like the rest of conference tournament futures odds with us, come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus with the futures. Sam setup with the NASCAR picks. First, though:
Davidson vs. Richmond
Don’t buy the fatigue-at-the-end-of-the-week idea.
Pick: Over 137 (-110). Medium confidence.
Houston vs. Memphis
Don’t buy the fatigue-at-the-end-of-the-week idea.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Medium confidence.
Purdue vs. Iowa
Don’t buy the fatigue-at-the-end-of-the-week idea.
Pick: Over 152 (-108). Medium confidence.
And, on the futures side:
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
Tennessee gets undervalued here, probably due to the A&M hot streak.
Pick: Tennessee to win -260. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to win -260. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to win -260. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to win -260. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to win -260. Medium confidence.
Houston vs. Memphis
Memphis is playing better, but not *this* much better.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
And finally, NASCAR:
NASCAR Cup Series: Ruoff Mortgage 500
We like the JGR Toyotas again this week, with Hamlin especially poised to bounce back after a rough start to the season. He’ll start on the front row. Harvick jumps out as a guy who’s had a lot of success here, and with Stewart-Haas seemingly bouncing back this season, there’s additional value from that angle. For our longshots, we like Jones and Stenhouse for driving well so far this year and each having a top-5 at Phoenix a few years back, while we aren’t sold on Keselowski’s car being as bad as the market seems to believe. He’s been in the mix a decent amount on the season.
Our impression is that Phoenix is fairly unusual as a track, but it’s possible we’re ignoring too many similar results, or incorporating the playoff results as too strong an indicator. Regardless, these are the seven we like.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +750. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Martin Truex, Jr. to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Erik Jones to win +8000. Low confidence.
Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win +8000. Low confidence.
