Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,748 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Houston vs. Memphis
The total here is lower than the KenPom number, with the thinking probably that tired legs lead to missed shots. That might be true, but there’s a contrary argument which says tired legs and low stakes lead to poor defense. We’ll cheer for layups.
Pick: Over 136 (-110). Low confidence.
Purdue vs. Penn State
The total here is lower than the KenPom number, with the thinking probably that tired legs lead to missed shots. That might be true, but there’s a contrary argument which says tired legs and low stakes lead to poor defense. We’ll cheer for layups.
Pick: Over 134.5 (-110). Low confidence.
