Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,918 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 120–85–1 and we’re down 3.16 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day.
Nebraska @ Michigan
Nebraska is only 2–8 this year on the road against power conference teams. Michigan is a mess, but they always have enough talent to be a threat to put it together. We’ll take the chance on the Wolverines.
Pick: Michigan to win +235. Low confidence.
Illinois @ Iowa
Illinois and Iowa have only met this number once in the last few years of Illinois/Iowa track meets, but: That occasion was their last meeting, 15 days ago. Also? Illinois’s defense is much worse right now than it’s been during recent Big Ten seasons.
Pick: Over 172.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
For our first “future” of today, we’re taking Drake. We think they and Indiana State are nearly indistinguishable in terms of quality, so whichever was the underdog was going to present value.
Pick: Drake to win +135. Low confidence.
SoCon Tournament
Speaking of value, the Furman infatuation from the market continues. Have the Paladins figured it out? We’re unconvinced, and we’ll gladly take this chance to get in on a favorite, especially with ETSU still alive across the bracket heading into today.
Pick: Samford to win +120. Low confidence.
Big Sky Conference Tournament
We love these huge longshots when there’s value, and that’s the case with Sacramento State, minute though the probability may be.
Pick: Sacramento State to win +20000. Low confidence.
Summit League Tournament
Kansas City’s exit from the Summit League Tournament opens up some possibility on the non-Jackrabbits/Tommies side of the bracket.
Pick: North Dakota to win +1000. Low confidence.
Patriot League Tournament
We aren’t sold on Colgate’s home court advantage magically multiplying in the postseason. We think it helps, but these odds are a bit too long to pass up.
Pick: Bucknell to win +1400. Low confidence.
Southland Conference Tournament
Finally, we’ll put a little down on McNeese. The value is small, but it’s positive, and we need favorites.
Pick: McNeese to win –350. Low confidence.
