Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,560 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 87–75 so far, down 4.35 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. And we’re up 4.11 units over the last six days.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
This one is straightforward by our Sunday standards. The Royals lost yesterday, Seth Lugo’s been good this year, Logan Allen’s been kind of bad, and the bullpen fatigue balance doesn’t disadvantage Kansas City. Our only concern is that the Royals appeared to be fading as recently as last week. We’re still wary of that, but it’s a Sunday. Losers win on Sundays.
Pick: Kansas City to win –126. Low confidence. (Allen and Lugo must start.)
Detroit @ Anaheim
This is more of a stretch. Tyler Anderson isn’t as good as his ERA, but he’s still good. Casey Mize hasn’t been working that deep into games. We like the Tigers in it, though, because Mize has been productive while on the mound and we like the Angels to lose. We don’t see these guys pulling off a perfect week, even if it’s against Oakland and Detroit.
Pick: Detroit to win –106. Low confidence. (Mize and Anderson must start.)
