Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 310 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Joey Gallo’s back from his strained oblique, and the Rangers are still in contention. In fact, the Rangers are now half a game further ahead of the pack in the AL Wild Card chase than they were the morning after Gallo went down, and only one game back of the Rays for the Wild Card lead (they were five back of Tampa Bay the day after Gallo’s injury). The likelihood they make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, has jumped from 1.7% to 7.3%, which is still a longshot, but is a dramatic improvement. The season is now over halfway done. The Rangers are relevant.
Gallo is still largely to thank for this. While his teammates deserve credit for managing to gain ground with him out, he’s still the one with the 3.5 WAR. And while there have only been five games since he returned, so far he hasn’t missed a beat. He’s reached base safely in nine of his 21 post-injury plate appearances, and on Thursday he hit two solo home runs in the Rangers’ 3-1 victory over Detroit.
Even in an abbreviated sample, Gallo has been the sixth-most valuable position player in the MLB so far this year. Having him back gives a large boost to a team getting more interesting by the day.
Over 8 (+100). Low confidence.
Washington @ Detroit
Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann are facing their old teams today, and each is facing an old teammate in the other.
Since crossing paths for one season in Washington—2015—the pitchers have gone in opposite directions. Zimmermann has only tallied 4.1 fWAR in total since leaving the capital, less than the 5.4 fWAR he registered in 2014. Scherzer, of course, has won two Cy Young’s, and averaged over six fWAR per year. This season is on track to be his best yet, while Zimmermann only recently returned from a sprained UCL and enters today with a 5.95 ERA.
There’s hope for Zimmermann, though. His FIP’s only 4.94, and in nine innings since rejoining the Tigers, he’s struck out six while only walking two.
Nothing will turn Zimmermann into Max Scherzer, but today, he has a chance to compete with him.
Detroit +1.5 (+170). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ San Diego
Paul Goldschmidt’s struggles this season have been perplexing. His batting average is a career low. His OBP is the worst since 2011, when he was called up in August to make his debut. His slugging percentage is dramatically the worst its ever been. All of which are reflecting how a guy with a career 141 wRC+ is suddenly a league-average hitter.
Some of this might have to do with leaving what was a hitter-friendly Chase Field during his time there, but it’s more significant than that. Goldschmidt is swinging at more pitches—both inside and outside the zone—than ever before, but it’s hard to know whether that’s a cause or effect of the downturn. His average exit velocity is down, which helps explain the diminished power numbers. His strikeout rate has climbed even higher after spiking last year, and his walk rate has declined in similar fashion.
It’s possible Goldschmidt’s just in a slump. It’s possible all this will pass, and that Paul Goldschmidt will be back to normal soon enough.
But it’s also possible that, at 31, Goldschmidt is no longer capable of being the hitter he once was.
Thankfully, Goldschmidt’s been so good in the past that even if he has to adjust his approach in light of reduced abilities, it’s reasonable to hope he can still be a valuable player. But at the very least, his performance to date’s been concerning.
Under 8 (-110). Low confidence.
